Still Not Sold
Polls that show a majority of people believe that Kerry beat Bush in the debate do not matter. Had GWB smacked Kerry up, I'd answer that poll bt saying GWB won the debate and I'd still not vote for him. Plenty of people polled acknowledged that Kerry won the debate, and are still supporting GWB. Michael's link to polling data showing that a majority of polled people in swing states acknowledge that Kerry won the debate doesn't mean we're in any kind of a substantively better position than we were a week ago.
I don't think that energizing his base is where Kerry's priorities need to lie. GWB's scathing incompetance has mobilized our base just fine. I'm as motivated as I ever was -- but I have yet to be really enthusiastic about a Democratic candidate. I've voted for the Democratic Party and against the Republican Party in every election I've voted in, except for 2000 when I was voting both against the Republicans and against their candidate. I've never decisively voted *for* a Democratic candidate.
Kerry won the debate. He looked good. Bush lost the debate and looked bad. He needs to look *far, far* worse for all this window dressing to really make a difference. Kerry needs to land a suckerpunch --- say something in the debates that leaves GWB unable to respond at all. We need a 10-15 second awkward silence where it looks like GWB is pissing his pants. *That's* what we need to really take the wind out of the Republican sails.
Remember, all this talk-talk-talking stuff is what Democrats do instead of taking action.
In the meantime, we on the side of truth and justice have some encouraging momentum. That is *all* we have that we can take to the bank.
I don't think that energizing his base is where Kerry's priorities need to lie. GWB's scathing incompetance has mobilized our base just fine. I'm as motivated as I ever was -- but I have yet to be really enthusiastic about a Democratic candidate. I've voted for the Democratic Party and against the Republican Party in every election I've voted in, except for 2000 when I was voting both against the Republicans and against their candidate. I've never decisively voted *for* a Democratic candidate.
Kerry won the debate. He looked good. Bush lost the debate and looked bad. He needs to look *far, far* worse for all this window dressing to really make a difference. Kerry needs to land a suckerpunch --- say something in the debates that leaves GWB unable to respond at all. We need a 10-15 second awkward silence where it looks like GWB is pissing his pants. *That's* what we need to really take the wind out of the Republican sails.
Remember, all this talk-talk-talking stuff is what Democrats do instead of taking action.
In the meantime, we on the side of truth and justice have some encouraging momentum. That is *all* we have that we can take to the bank.
posted by Kevin Bogart at 4:55 PM
3 Comments:
It's going to take a few days before we know whether people's perceptions of the debate translate into support for Kerry, particularly for data that is broken down by state. But the first sign--the Newsweek poll showing Kerry suddenly AHEAD in the horserace--is extremely encouraging. No one is saying the election is won. But the momentum before the debates wasn't just stagnant, it was decisively against us. Now it is decisively in our favor. That is a huge accomplishment, a necessary step toward victory, and worthy of celebration. It also needs to be captured and built upon. I think you're selling it too short and thereby minimizing our ability to capture it.
I'm not saying use the debate, the spin, and the first polls as an excuse to sit on our laurels. I'm saying use it as an excuse to get ourselves fired up. Some of us have a little time on our hands at the moment (ahem ;-) ). Some of us have a little cash. All of us have something we can give to this effort. So get excited about Kerry's huge accomplishment and harness it for victory! I hate to sound Bushie, but there is neither place nor cause for pre-emptive pessimism right now. Get out there and let's win this thing.
https://www.democrats.org/support/index.html?dsc=NETA249
P.S. as to the base, you're wrong. First, the "base" includes not just perennial voters like you and me but all those newly-registered non-whites and/or students in OH and FL. Now they have a reason to get to the polls. Second, the base--including us--is the engine of any campaign. They write the checks, they knock on the doors. I didn't want to do either before Thursday. But I've contributed a bit of my paltry stipend and am trying to make plans to get out to PA a couple days the last week of October. And I don't think I'm alone. Campaigning 101 tells you that as election day approaches you move from persuadables to base. The great thing about Kerry's performance and the post-debate spin is that he's reaching BOTH these groups (you have seen the data showing that he's leading among men right? MEN.). No zero-sum game here.
God bless your optimism. One of us will be right in a month, and I certainly hope it's you. I'll gladly eat crow.
FL is hopeless -- even if more people actually do vote for Kerry, the state'll go for Bush. Ohio? After eight years of hearing you talk about how the OH Dem party is in shambles, I'm not optimistic there either (that and we've had only one data point showing us ahead in OH since mid-august: http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html).
Electoral math gets tough with OH and FL in the red.
I'm not asking you to eat crow. I'm asking you to do something so that just maybe you'll have to eat crow. Get your ass back to MN, or IA, or WI or MI or even OH for a few days. Grab a couple folks from the local KE04 campaign and go into gay bars passing out stickers and getting signatures pledging to vote on 11/2.
Someone with a car, time, anti-Bush passion and five swing states within easy driving distance should not be spending more time worrying than doing something right now. And I know you're not the only person reading this blog to whom that applies. I propose on y'all's behalf a Supas road trip!
:-)
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