Debates, Two Days Later
So, I was really pleased with how cogent Kerry sounded, and how moronic GWB sounded.
As I am *whenever* either of them speaks. (Well, OK no, I've gotten pissed at Kerry for not being aggressive enough).
But you get the idea: how can I be encouraged by my own perceptions of how the debate went? It blows my mind that Kerry isn't leading GWB by 20 percentage points across the country -- it's absurd that the Bushies have saddled Kerry with a credibility problem when their candidate is responsible for misleading the country into war, etc etc etc. I can't trust my own opinions of things, because the country has gone so far through the looking glass. Who cares what I think! Kerry could have walked out, pointed at GWB and said, "Are you kidding me with this guy?" and I'd have been thrilled. It would not have been terribly smart election year politics however.
So my opinions don't exactly gel with the national zeitgeist. The only explanation is, imho, that the Republican message of "we're bringing the fight to the terrorists and the Democrats are content to let them bring the fight here" has tremendous traction because of its simplicity and accessibility. Add that with the tendency of narrow-minded Americans to view the entire Muslim/Arab world as uniformly "terrorist" (allowing that little OBL=Saddam Hussein thing to work), and the damn message sells, even though it's a load of crap. Americans like the simple answers, and distain complexity.
That's all a bit of background to my conclusion: Kerry was great, but I don't think Bush was bad enough. I want to see him stand there, totally gobsmacked. Kerry had my fist pumpin' in the air, and GWB (oh, yet again) made me feel embarrassed to be an American, but does that mean any of this got through to squishy GWB supporters or the undecided? Did enough of them really say, "Hey, this Kerry guy is making some sense?" I'm, again, a big ball of pessimism.
As I am *whenever* either of them speaks. (Well, OK no, I've gotten pissed at Kerry for not being aggressive enough).
But you get the idea: how can I be encouraged by my own perceptions of how the debate went? It blows my mind that Kerry isn't leading GWB by 20 percentage points across the country -- it's absurd that the Bushies have saddled Kerry with a credibility problem when their candidate is responsible for misleading the country into war, etc etc etc. I can't trust my own opinions of things, because the country has gone so far through the looking glass. Who cares what I think! Kerry could have walked out, pointed at GWB and said, "Are you kidding me with this guy?" and I'd have been thrilled. It would not have been terribly smart election year politics however.
So my opinions don't exactly gel with the national zeitgeist. The only explanation is, imho, that the Republican message of "we're bringing the fight to the terrorists and the Democrats are content to let them bring the fight here" has tremendous traction because of its simplicity and accessibility. Add that with the tendency of narrow-minded Americans to view the entire Muslim/Arab world as uniformly "terrorist" (allowing that little OBL=Saddam Hussein thing to work), and the damn message sells, even though it's a load of crap. Americans like the simple answers, and distain complexity.
That's all a bit of background to my conclusion: Kerry was great, but I don't think Bush was bad enough. I want to see him stand there, totally gobsmacked. Kerry had my fist pumpin' in the air, and GWB (oh, yet again) made me feel embarrassed to be an American, but does that mean any of this got through to squishy GWB supporters or the undecided? Did enough of them really say, "Hey, this Kerry guy is making some sense?" I'm, again, a big ball of pessimism.
posted by Kevin Bogart at 1:28 PM
12 Comments:
Newsweek poll sez:
61-19 Kerry won
47-45 Kerry gets their vote
47-44 Kerry the stronger leader
47-41 Kerry more likeable.
Ahem. More *likeable*.
The American people are not stupid. The American people are busy. When they sit down and take in some unfiltered information for a few seconds, they get it. And they're getting it.
And I hereby nominate split-screens to the Democratic hall of fame.
Oh, and one more thing. That OBL = Saddam Hussein thing? It's over. Toast. The debate saw to that. Bush's slip-up combined with the fact that WE LET OBL GO when we had him is gonna get some swing voters hopping mad.
Now go to http://www.dnc.org/ and give some money already. Keep the mo' going our way.
Well, all that says to me is that a lot more people are willing to acknowledge that Kerry won than are actually going to vote for him. Two percentage points on on a margin of error of what? Not to mention hor irrelevant the popular vote is -- so Kerry shored up some support in CA/Il/MA/NY and even TX... so what. Wisconsin and Ohio adn Florida are still trending Bush.
Well, all that says to me is that a lot more people are willing to acknowledge that Kerry won than are actually going to vote for him. Two percentage points on on a margin of error of what? Not to mention hor irrelevant the popular vote is -- so Kerry shored up some support in CA/Il/MA/NY and even TX... so what. Wisconsin and Ohio adn Florida are still trending Bush.
Michael's right again, as per usual. Up until now, the GOP has peddled its message without the Dems being able to do the Point/Counterpoint of "George, you ignorant slut!" When you juxtapose the two parties (not to mention the two men)in real time, the GOP sounds like the American Taliban that it is. Therefore, Kevin, you're just going to have to stop indulging your pessimism. The first debate was the most important for Kerry, since it dealt with foreign policy, which the GOP supposedly has a lock on. Well they don't. What's left? DOMESTIC POLICY? Please; my gramma could take GWB to the woodshed on that. Especially my gramma; she'd have some choice words about prescription drug benefits.THEY ARE NOT POLLING THE 18-25's. Gallup, Zogby, all of their samples have been shown to be skewing Republican, as much as 12% in some cases. We are going to win this thing.
much love,
krs1 (who can't post as such because stupid Blogger decided not to recognize my password)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Today's electoral map looks an awful lot like what Nov 2 will, except that we'll win NM.
I hope I am proven wrong.
Go to my blog and read my comments on "margin of error." The media are statistically illiterate. Two points on a margin of error of four doesn't mean they're tied. It means there's a good chance the true value lies around that two point margin. It's still likelier than not that Kerry has pulled ahead. Stef is more qualified than I to jump in on this point. But here's some info from http://www.ncpp.org/qajsa.htm#11 :
"Thus, for example, a "3 percentage point margin of error" in a national poll means that if the attempt were made to interview every adult in the nation with the same questions in the same way at the same time as the poll was taken, the poll's answers would fall within plus or minus 3 percentage points of the complete count’s results 95% of the time."
So we can be 95% confident that the true numbers are within three points of this poll (barring other methodological problems). And 5/6 of those numbers have Kerry ahead (3 up and 2 down); 6/6 in the two-man race. Make no mistake: Kerry is now ahead.
Furthermore, JFK has gone from three points-ish down to two-pointsish up. That's a five point move just a couple days after the debates. He's decisively winning the spin, which is what killed Gore after the first debate four years ago. The talking heads, the Sunday talk shows, the editorial cartoons, Leno, SNL--all of them are trashing Bush. Impressions are realigning and fossilizing as we speak--less than 30 days out. This is a very good sign.
Furtherfurthermore, Kerry has energized his base (well, all of it except Kevin ;-) ). We are excited about HIM. Finally. That is a HUGE hole in his campaign that has suddenly been obliterated.
Finally, swing states? Here's the data:
http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/PrezDebate093004WinnerLoserByRegion.pdf
On that map we take not only NM but NH and FL plus 4 or 5 votes from CO for a total of 278-9 electoral votes. Don't count out WI and IA either (which buffer FL). Things are looking great. Now get excited already!
And go give the Dems some money. Hell, take off to Cleveland and do some GOTV.
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